Consider the numbers they’re looking at. A week ago, Obama was leading by 3.1 percent in RealClearPolitics’ average of polls, and he had a 74.8 percent chance of winning the election in Nate Silver’s electoral model. But that was supposed to change: Obama’s convention bounce was dissipating, and the plan was for Romney, the RNC and the super PACs to flood the airwaves, creating the conditions necessary for Romney to mount a comeback.

One week later, Obama is up by 3.7 percent in the polls, and up to 77.6 percent in the